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Vistadex supports binary prediction markets—markets with exactly two possible outcomes: YES or NO. One outcome will win and pay 1pershare;theotherwillbeworth1 per share; the other will be worth 0.

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How Binary Markets Work

Every binary market poses a yes-or-no question with specific resolution criteria:
  • “Will Candidate X win the election?” → YES or NO
  • “Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31?” → YES or NO
  • “Will Company Y release Product Z in Q1?” → YES or NO
When the market resolves:
  • YES shares pay $1.00 each if the answer is YES
  • NO shares pay $1.00 each if the answer is NO
  • The losing side pays $0.00

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The Relationship Between YES and NO

YES and NO prices are mathematically linked. If you hold one YES share and one NO share, you’re guaranteed to receive exactly 1whenthemarketresolves(onepays1 when the market resolves (one pays 1, the other pays $0). This means:
  • If YES is priced at 0.40,NOshouldbeapproximately0.40, NO should be approximately 0.60
  • Prices may not sum to exactly $1.00 due to spreads and fees
  • Arbitrageurs help keep prices aligned

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Market Resolution

1

Event Occurs (or Deadline Passes)

The real-world event specified in the market either happens or the deadline for it to happen passes.
2

Outcome Determined

Based on the resolution criteria, the outcome is determined to be YES or NO.
3

Market Resolves

The market officially resolves and winning shares become redeemable.
4

Redemption Available

Holders of winning shares can redeem them for $1.00 USDC each.

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Resolution Criteria

Each market has specific resolution criteria that define exactly how the outcome is determined. Before trading, always read and understand these criteria.
Market: “Will the Fed raise rates at the March meeting?”Resolution: Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve announces a rate increase at the conclusion of the March FOMC meeting. Resolves NO if rates are unchanged or lowered.This is clear—there’s an official announcement with an unambiguous outcome.
Market: “Will Product X be successful?”This is ambiguous. What defines “successful”? Sales numbers? User adoption? Reviews? Avoid markets with vague resolution criteria.

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Edge Cases

If a market asks “Will X happen by Date Y?” and Date Y passes without X happening, the market resolves NO.

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Split and Merge

Vistadex uses a split/merge mechanism for creating and redeeming shares:
Depositing $1 USDC creates 1 YES share + 1 NO share. This is how new shares enter the market. Market makers use this to provide liquidity.
Holding 1 YES + 1 NO share allows you to merge them back into $1 USDC at any time, regardless of market outcome. This provides an exit if you somehow end up with matched pairs.
This split/merge mechanism ensures that share prices stay anchored to the $1 payout value and prevents prices from detaching from fundamentals.