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Vistadex supports binary prediction markets: markets with exactly two possible outcomes: YES or NO. One outcome will win and pay $1 per share; the other will be worth $0.

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How Binary Markets Work

Every binary market poses a yes-or-no question with specific resolution criteria:
  • “Will Candidate X win the election?” → YES or NO
  • “Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31?” → YES or NO
  • “Will Company Y release Product Z in Q1?” → YES or NO
When the market resolves:
  • YES shares pay $1.00 each if the market resolves to YES
  • NO shares pay $1.00 each if the market resolves to NO

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The Relationship Between YES and NO

YES and NO prices are mutually exclusive. If you hold one YES share and one NO share, you’re guaranteed to receive exactly $1 when the market resolves (one pays $1, the other pays $0). If YES is priced at $0.40, NO should be approximately $0.60. Prices may not sum to exactly $1.00 due to spreads.

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Market Resolution

1

Event Occurs (or Deadline Passes)

The real-world event specified in the market either happens or the deadline for it to happen passes.
2

Outcome Determined

Based on the resolution criteria, the outcome is determined to be YES or NO.
3

Market Resolves

The market officially resolves and winning shares become redeemable.
4

Redemption Available

Holders of winning shares can redeem them for $1.00 USDC each.

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Edge Case: Non-Binary Payouts

In rare cases, the reference platform resolves a market with a non-binary payout vector, where shares pay out between $0 and $1 rather than a strict binary outcome. In the history of Polymarket, 554 markets have resolved with non-binary payouts. These are mostly ties in sporting events with no designated tie option, such as the NFL moneyline market between Green Bay and Dallas on September 28, 2025. Vistadex supports non-binary payout vectors and will always resolve 1:1 with the reference platform.