Documentation Index
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Prediction market share prices directly represent implied probabilities. A YES share priced at $0.70 implies a 70% probability of the event occurring. This page explains how to interpret prices and convert between common odds formats.
Price as Probability
The simplest way to think about prediction market prices:
| Share Price | Implied Probability |
|---|
| $0.05 | 5% |
| $0.20 | 20% |
| $0.50 | 50% |
| $0.80 | 80% |
| $0.95 | 95% |
To Decimal Odds
To American Odds
To Fractional Odds
Decimal odds show your total return per $1 wagered (including your stake).Formula: Decimal Odds = 1 / Price| Price | Decimal Odds | Meaning |
|---|
| $0.20 | 5.00 | Win 5x your stake |
| $0.50 | 2.00 | Win 2x your stake |
| $0.80 | 1.25 | Win 1.25x your stake |
American odds show profit relative to $100 wagered.For prices below $0.50 (underdog):
American Odds = (100 / Price) - 100, shown as positiveFor prices above $0.50 (favorite):
American Odds = Price / (1 - Price) × 100, shown as negative| Price | American Odds |
|---|
| $0.20 | +400 |
| $0.33 | +200 |
| $0.50 | +100 / -100 |
| $0.67 | -200 |
| $0.80 | -400 |
Fractional odds (common in UK) show profit relative to stake.Formula: Fractional = (1 - Price) / Price| Price | Fractional Odds |
|---|
| $0.20 | 4/1 |
| $0.25 | 3/1 |
| $0.50 | 1/1 (evens) |
| $0.75 | 1/3 |
| $0.80 | 1/4 |
Quick Reference Table
| Probability | Price | Decimal | American | Fractional |
|---|
| 10% | $0.10 | 10.00 | +900 | 9/1 |
| 20% | $0.20 | 5.00 | +400 | 4/1 |
| 25% | $0.25 | 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 |
| 33% | $0.33 | 3.00 | +200 | 2/1 |
| 50% | $0.50 | 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 |
| 67% | $0.67 | 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 |
| 75% | $0.75 | 1.33 | -300 | 1/3 |
| 80% | $0.80 | 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 |
| 90% | $0.90 | 1.11 | -900 | 1/9 |
