Price as Probability
The simplest way to think about prediction market prices:| Share Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| $0.05 | 5% |
| $0.20 | 20% |
| $0.50 | 50% |
| $0.80 | 80% |
| $0.95 | 95% |
Converting Between Formats
- To Decimal Odds
- To American Odds
- To Fractional Odds
Decimal odds show your total return per $1 wagered (including your stake).Formula: Decimal Odds = 1 / Price
Example: Buy at $0.25, decimal odds = 4.00. A $10 bet returns $40 if you win ($30 profit + $10 stake).
| Price | Decimal Odds | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| $0.20 | 5.00 | Win 5x your stake |
| $0.50 | 2.00 | Win 2x your stake |
| $0.80 | 1.25 | Win 1.25x your stake |
Quick Reference Table
| Probability | Price | Decimal | American | Fractional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | $0.10 | 10.00 | +900 | 9/1 |
| 20% | $0.20 | 5.00 | +400 | 4/1 |
| 25% | $0.25 | 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 |
| 33% | $0.33 | 3.00 | +200 | 2/1 |
| 50% | $0.50 | 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 |
| 67% | $0.67 | 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 |
| 75% | $0.75 | 1.33 | -300 | 1/3 |
| 80% | $0.80 | 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 |
| 90% | $0.90 | 1.11 | -900 | 1/9 |